Saturday, November 04, 2006

Opportunity Knocks

The 9th and final Masters Series event of the season concludes this week in Paris. Sports Magician takes a look at the semi-final line up and the implications for the season ending tournament in Shanghai.

Yet again, the event in Paris has gained more attention for who is not there rather than who is. Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Ivan Ljubicic, Andy Roddick and David Nalbandian did not take their place in the draw for various reasons from fatigue to illness to injury. The absence of these players, Federer in particular, has opened the door for the rest of the tour.

Nikolay Davydenko (4) v Tommy Robredo (6)
With both players having had their places in Shanghai booked this week, all that remains to be settled is the small matter of a place in a Masters Series final.

For Davydenko, a Masters Series semi-final is still largely unchartered territory. Having reached the last 4 of Hamburg in 2005, Davydenko has not excelled in 2006 at Masters events, with this semi-final appearance being his best performance of the year. This week he has been in strong form, making short work of his victims. His week started with a 6-0 6-0 slaughter of Christophe Rochus, and he followed that up with straight sets wins over Tursunov and Ancic. The defeat handed to Ancic ended the Croatian's hopes of being in Shanghai by rights.

Tommy Robredo is having a career season, he more than any other player has cashed in when Federer and Nadal have not been around for Masters events. Earlier in the year, he won his 1st Masters Series title in Hamburg that catapulted him into the top 10, where he has stayed in and around since. During the US hard court season, Robredo made the semi-finals in Cincinnati before falling to Juan Carlos Ferrero. His appearance in the last 4 in Paris is therefore the 3rd time this season he has reached the latter stages of a Masters event in 2006. Things certainly haven't been easy this week for the Spaniard, coming back from a set and 5-2 down to defeat Grosjean in his first match. He backed that up with a victory over Mathieu, and yesterday won a lengthy encounter with Nieminen.

Despite playing more than 20 matches more than Robredo in 2006, Davydenko may well be the fresher of the two for today's battle given the efficiency he has won his matches with this week in comparison to the more draining matches Robredo has been involved in.

The head to head is one apiece. Davydenko won in 5 sets in the quarter-finals of Roland Garros in 2005. Robredo's victory came earlier this year, again on clay. This time in the final in Bastad. Davydenko will as ever be hard to beat, however, Robredo should not be written off given the battling qualities he has shown this week in particular. This could be a long one.

Tommy Haas (10) v Dominik Hrbaty (17)
At the start of the week players such as Gonzalez and Ancic were looking to break into the top 8 to reach Shanghai. Tommy Haas had not been strongly considered to crash the party, but the perfectionist German now just stands two victories from doing so. In a career often disrupted by injury, Haas is close to recording his 2nd Masters Series victory, having done so the first time 5 years ago in Stuttgart.

Haas has performed poorly this year in Masters events up to now, although he has picked up 3 other titles this season. The German has shown some of his best form since the first half of the season in defeating Llodra, and in particularly, Blake and Safin. Haas needs to win the tournament to oust James Blake from the last remaining spot for Shanghai, and he will be favourite to at least make the final in his quest.

Starting the year at no.18 in the rankings, Dominik Hrbaty has had a very average year in 2006. His ranking has slipped slightly to 27, and he has failed to reach a final this year on the main tour (he did reach a final of a Challenger tournament). His best efforts have been 3 semi-final appearances in Adelaide, Los Angeles and most recently in Vienna. There was little evidence to suggest that Hrbaty would be the in reckoning come the weekend, his record this year in Masters Series events was a distinctly ordinary 8-8 coming into Paris. Only in Cincinnati had he been able to win back to back matches. However, his form in the French capital has been more impressive, knocking out the defending champion Tomas Berdych in yesterday's quarter-final.

These two players are certainly no strangers to each other, having met 13 times previously. Haas has the edge with an 8-5 record, their first meeting coming back in 1997 in Hamburg. They have met 3 times this year, with Haas leading 2-1. Their most recent encounter was a couple of weeks back in Madrid. Haas was the victor 6-3, 7-6 having saved numerous set points in the 2nd set to wrap up the match in straight sets. The greater experience in dealing with matches of this magnitude may be the difference here in Haas's favour. Although Hrbaty is a seasoned pro, a semi-final in a Masters event is as far as he has ever been and it remains to be seen how he handles the expectation.

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