Friday, December 29, 2006

Here Comes The Season

The 2007 ATP Tennis season begins in the coming days; Sports Magician previews what we may learn over the next twelve months. The season begins with tournaments in Adelaide, Chennai and Doha. Adelaide is an appropriate place to start given the nature of the tournament this year, the first to experience the Round-Robin format.

- How will Round-Robin play out?
Sports Magician is against the introduction of Round-Robin tournaments on the tour, although at an “experimental” stage and not yet to be seen at Masters Series events or Grand Slams. The possibility of dead matches is clear to see, and will undoubtedly happen on many occasions this season. The idea that you either win or go home puts an edge on each and every match. Taking this away is of no benefit to the fan, or even the players. During a gruelling season, there are often times when a player “tanks” a match here or there, regardless of how obvious it may or may not be, even if the intention is not there to do so, sometimes the body or mind doesn’t allow anything different. Now players know they can lose, and still possibly go through to the latter stages, providing a different slant on the mentality and mindset of players. Even if it is just subconscious, it will be evident during the season.

The ATP state that their research indicates that tennis fans are in favour of Round-Robin events, and it would be interesting to know what their precise results are. Visit any message board with passionate tennis fans presenting their views, and those who oppose Round-Robin far outweigh those in favour. Furthermore, it could even be said that a fair portion of those in “favour” are simply waiting to see how things play out before giving a definitive judgement, rather than believing the change will be of genuine benefit.

The move is for sponsors and TV primarily, and the ATP will fail in their attempts to dress it up as anything else. Money talks, and the ATP are in danger of thinking more about money than the future and integrity of the sport. Sports Magician will not be sitting on the fence on this issue that is for sure, and hopes that the “experiment” proves to be a failure, so the tour can get back to a sense of consistency.

The ATP believes the move will enable fans to get to see the top players in action, provided they will have at least two matches to compete in. And as it happens, the tour’s number one player, Roger Federer, will not be playing any of the Round-Robin tournaments.

- Can Roger Federer be any more dominant?
Roger Federer states that his priorities for the season remain retaining the number one ranking and winning Wimbledon (the first Grand Slam he got his hands on). However, in order to differentiate this season from his outstanding last three seasons (particularly the last two), Federer will need to dominate on clay the way he has done everywhere else. In 2006, the boy from Basel came three matches away from arguably the most incredible year any individual or team has had in sports. Losing clay court finals to world number two, Rafael Nadal, in Monte Carlo, Rome (Federer had two match points) and Roland Garros (the Mecca of clay court tennis) prevented Federer from completing what would have been a historic season that would surely never be equalled and certainly not bettered.

Federer is 0-4 on clay v Nadal, he came as close as you can in Rome when he held two match points, neither of which he was able to convert. Despite beating Nadal since the Roland Garros final on two occasions (Wimbledon & Shanghai), Nadal can still count on a psychological dominance over Federer on clay, and one of the more intriguing storylines of 2007 will be whether Federer can break this hold. Hopefully both players will be fit and healthy come the European clay court season for us to be able to sit back, enjoy and find out.

- Can Rafael Nadal reverse the slump?
It seems absurd to ask such a question of a twenty year old who has won two Grand Slam titles, made another Grand Slam final and won six Masters Series events in the past two seasons, and yet the question is being asked by more than a few people. Nadal had a poor second half of the season in 2006. Having reached the Wimbledon final, Nadal’s season stalled completely and he did not advance past the quarter finals of any tournament until the season ending Masters Cup in Shanghai.

The Spaniard missed last year’s Australian Open, and it will be interesting to see how he fares in Melbourne in a few weeks on the reportedly speeded up courts. It won’t be long before Nadal is on clay again, and as he did in 2006, he will face the pressure of having to defend titles in Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome and Roland Garros. Will he be beaten on clay this year? Sports Magician believes it will happen, but it remains to be seen by who and when. Roger Federer is clearly the prime candidate. Post-Wimbledon will be the true test of Nadal’s progression, and all eyes will be on him to see if he has adjusted his style on hard and indoor courts to improve on the poor results he achieved in the latter half of 2006.

- Can Andy Roddick continue the resurgence?
After a poor first half of the season in 2006, where he was comprehensively outplayed by Scot Andy Murray, at Wimbledon, Roddick teamed up with Jimmy Connors and experienced a revival in the second half of the season. He won the Cincinnati Masters and followed that up with an appearance in the US Open final. There is an apparent sting and zip back in Roddick’s game and attitude that seemed lacking early in 2006. Unlikely to ever achieve much on clay in the more high profile tournaments (Masters events and Roland Garros), Roddick’s season will be judged on what he can achieve elsewhere, and whether the fire that Connors has lit under him will continue to burn or fizzle out.

- Can David Nalbandian fulfil his potential?
No longer able to call himself the reigning Masters Cup champion, the Argentine ended the 2006 season by leading his nation into their first Davis Cup final in twenty-five years. Nalbandian proved what many are already well aware of, that he has the talent to be a Grand Slam champion, by beating Nikolay Davydenko and Marat Safin in Moscow for the loss of just one set. Whether Nalbandian will ever be able to translate his talent into a tangible Grand Slam triumph and not simply a series of consistent showings that result in semi-final appearances (he also made the Wimbledon final in 2002) will likely be answered in the next two or three years. Each passing year indicates that the potential will remain unfulfilled, and 2007 represents a significant year in the career of David Nalbandian in the eyes of Sports Magician. Time is running out and the window of opportunity shuts far quicker than it opens.

- Can the newcomers stick around?
2006 saw four new names end the year in the top ten of the men’s tour. James Blake, Tommy Robredo, Mario Ancic and Fernando Gonzalez had career years. Blake and Robredo particularly had outstanding years. Blake won five titles and made the final of a Masters Series event and the Masters Cup. Meanwhile, Robredo won his first Masters Series title in Hamburg. Competition is fierce, and there are a number of very talented young players maturing by the week and looking to break into the elite and turn these four players into ‘one season wonders’. Sports Magician believes it will be a tough ask for all four to still be in the top ten come the end of the season and that rather than Blake or Robredo, Mario Ancic has the greater chance to still be there. Ancic, a player yet to fully justify the hype around him in previous years, had a quietly strong 2006 despite missing significant time with injury.

- Can the young guns make some noise?
The ATP, as mentioned, has a number of very talented young players on the verge of taking the step from promise to fulfilment. Marcos Baghdatis, Tomas Berdych, Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic and Richard Gasquet lie waiting to jump into the top ten, all of these players currently sit between twelve and eighteen in the rankings. In addition, there is Gael Monfils, currently lower down in the rankings at forty-six, who will be hoping for an injury free 2007 to show what he is fully capable of. Another name to bear in mind that may not be able to make the impact that the already mentioned youngsters might in 2007, but is certainly a player that will be likely to in 2008, is Juan-Martin Del Potro, currently ranked ninety-second on the tour. By the end of the season, his name will be far more familiar to you.

Sports Magician believes at least two of these youngsters will be sitting in the top ten in twelve months, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic being the likely candidates.

- Can elite players of the recent past return to the top ten?
Between 2000-2005, names such as Lleyton Hewitt, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Guillermo Coria and Marat Safin were regular fixtures in the top ten, but in 2006, none of them sat amongst the elite. All of them have suffered for one reason or another, be it injury, politics on and off the court, or just simply a loss of form and confidence that they have forever been trying to regain. Hewitt’s 2006 season was highlighted by winning Queens. Ferrero’s was credible for making a Masters Series final in Cincinnati. Safin salvaged some joy from his season by winning the deciding rubber in the Davis Cup final versus Argentina. There was no such joy for Coria, who doesn’t just sit outside the top ten at present, but the top one hundred.

The Magician whose plight was documented in the latter period of this year faces a significant challenge to rediscover his past form and successes that took him to number three in the world only two and a half years ago.

Sports Magician believes Marat Safin has the greatest chance to find himself back in the top ten sooner rather than later.

Tell Sports Magician what you feel the 2007 season will bring by leaving a comment.

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