ATP Masters Series - Indian Wells

The first Masters Series event of the season is already underway in the Pan Pacific Life Open at Indian Wells. A field of ninety-six players means action has begun slightly earlier than most other Masters Series events which start and finish in the space of seven day. The seeds are in action today, and so we take a look at what the draw has produced and may have in store for us over the coming days.

The One Man Quarter

It may be boring, it may be predictable but there is no denying who is most likely to come through the first quarter of the draw and then the top half of the draw and be the eventual winner. You guessed it, Roger Federer. The world number one is in pursuit of another record – the longest win streak. Currently, Federer stands at 41 consecutive wins and if he defends the title will surpass the record of 46 held by Guillermo Vilas. The first opponent Federer is likely to face is Guillermo Cañas. The Argentine work horse is in the midst of another “comeback” player of the year phase, having returned to the tour late last season after his unjust suspension had been reduced. Cañas has elevated his ranking to 60 and it seems just a matter of time before he is knocking on the door of the top 20. The last meeting between the two was at the semi-final stage of Indian Wells in 2005, Federer winning in straight sets.

Further down the line, a familiar foe may face Federer in the form of Lleyton Hewitt. The current and former world number one’s have met on 18 occasions, with Federer leading the head to head, 11-7. The quarter-final from the first quarter could see a repeat of last year’s final between Federer and James Blake. The American has recently been caught up in the controversy surrounding the round-robin fiasco in Las Vegas and with Federer in his quarter will find it very difficult to defend the points he obtained in the tournament last year.

Other players who will be hoping to make some noise from this section include David Ferrer, Novak Djokovic and another player caught up in the mess in Las Vegas, Evgeny Korolev.

The “Final” Four Quarter

Given the run Federer has been on, there is not much hope that whoever comes through this quarter will be able to advance beyond the semi-final. In effect, the players in this section are playing for at best, a final four spot. Hopefully, that is not the attitude any of these players will take into a prospective semi-final, but from the outside looking in, that’s the way it looks likely to play out.

This section is loaded with some quality players and any number could find their way through. Nikolay Davydenko is a model of consistency and Marat Safin is always capable of beating any opponent, including himself. Andy Murray, under the guidance of Brad Gilbert is improving weak areas of his game (like fitness) all the time, and is also a threat to come through. Tommy Haas has been playing exceptional tennis in his past couple of tournaments in Memphis and Dubai. And then there is Fernando Gonzalez, who reached the final of the Australian Open earlier this year and will be playing his first tournament since the disappointment of being unable to carry Chile past Russia in Davis Cup action.

This should be an entertaining quarter, with possible match ups including Safin v Murray and a repeat of the Australian Open semi-final between Haas and Gonzalez. On current form such an encounter is unlikely to be as one-sided as it was in Melbourne in Gonzalez’s favour.

The Quarter of Opportunity

Thus far the season has not been a roaring success for any of Ivan Ljubicic, David Nalbandian or Andy Roddick. All three players currently reside in the top 10 and will see this as a chance to reach the semi-finals and a prospective final. Ljubicic started the season well with a tournament victory in Doha, and has reached two other tour finals in Zagreb and Rotterdam. On the face of it that’s a decent season to date, however, the Croat would have hoped that kind of form would translate into success at Grand Slam level. That was not the case in Melbourne as Ljubicic fell at the first hurdle and has had a disappointment on a team/international level with Croatia exiting the Davis Cup at the earliest opportunity.

For David Nalbandian, the season has not yet even begun three months in. The Argentine has been carrying injuries from the back end of last season into the current season and has rarely looked his best. With a fair amount of ranking points to defend over the coming months (semi-finals in Miami, Rome and Roland Garros), Nalbandian will have to be ready to perform sooner rather than later, otherwise his ranking will inevitably slip.

Whoever beats Andy Roddick should win the tournament. At least that is what we have seen so far this season, the big serving American has lost to the eventual winner in each of his three tournaments this season. At the Australian Open it was Roger Federer, in San Jose it was Andy Murray and in Memphis it was Tommy Haas. Although Roddick will be encouraged by reaching the latter stages of each of those tournaments, it can’t have done him much good to be outplayed in the manner he was by Federer and Haas specifically.

Roddick should progress to the 4th round at least where he could meet the winner of an exciting match to be played later today between Richard Gasquet and Juan-Martin del Potro. Ljubicic and Nalbandian could cross swords in the 4th round, with the Croat leading the head to head 4-2.

The Will Nadal Hug The Baseline Quarter

If Rafael Nadal can convince and program himself to play alongside the baseline rather than a few feet behind it, then he is as likely as anyone to negotiate this section of the draw. That being said, Nadal has been unable to stick to these tactics consistently and has experienced a continued dip in form and confidence ever since the 2006 Wimbledon final. Nadal plays later today against Arnaud Clement, should he be successful there are greater challenges that could lie ahead in the form of Mikhail Youzhny and Tomas Berdych. The Spaniard won’t be too unhappy to say the least if both players are removed from the tournament before he might have to face them.

Mikhail Youzhny is playing the best tennis of his career and in recent weeks has picked up a title in Rotterdam and only Roger Federer could stop him in Dubai. Youzhny could meet Nadal in the 4th round but will have to be on his toes from the off if he is not to fall to Jose Acasuso. Other players who will be hoping to come through the bottom quarter are Tommy Robredo, Marcos Baghdatis and Tomas Berdych.

Sports Magician will be previewing the Miami Masters.